Jobs and stocks are holding up, but high borrowing costs, thin household savings, and federal debt are keeping the country under strain.
Jobs and stocks are helping. High rates, low savings, and federal debt are pulling the score down.
The short version
Latest available readings
Interest rates
A key interest rate that influences mortgages and other long-term loans.
Long-term borrowing remains expensive.
This is the rate the U.S. pays to borrow for ten years. It also influences mortgages, business loans, and many other rates.
Federal Reserve · July 17, 2026Buying a home
What a typical new 30-year home loan costs.
Still high enough to keep many owners from moving.
The average rate on a standard fixed mortgage. Higher rates raise the monthly payment and make moving or refinancing less attractive.
Freddie Mac · July 16, 2026Everyday prices
How quickly everyday prices are rising.
Prices are rising more slowly, but not yet comfortably.
Inflation measures how quickly the price of a typical basket of goods and services is rising compared with one year ago.
Bureau of Labor Statistics · June 2026Work
People seeking work who cannot find it.
The job market remains a relative bright spot.
The share of people who want a job and are actively looking but do not have one. A low number is generally good, unless it hides people leaving the workforce.
Bureau of Labor Statistics · June 2026Stock market
Tracks stock prices for 500 large U.S. companies.
The market is up this year, helping invested households—but not everyone owns stocks.
The S&P 500 follows 500 large U.S. companies. It is not the whole economy, but many retirement funds and investments track it, so it can affect household wealth.
S&P Dow Jones Indices · July 22, 2026 closeUnder the hood
0 = severe stress · 100 = strong
High rates are making it harder to buy a home or move.
25% of today's conditionsJobs are still supporting household finances.
25% of today's conditionsInflation has cooled, but it remains above the Fed’s goal.
20% of today's conditionsLow saving leaves less room for surprise expenses.
15% of today's conditionsDebt and interest costs leave the government less room.
10% of today's conditionsStocks are supporting invested households and signaling confidence.
5% of today's conditionsThe long view
Presidential terms shown for context
America recovered steadily after the financial crisis, peaked before the pandemic, then lost ground as inflation and interest rates rose.
The score is 80% today's conditions and 20% what markets expect next. Stocks are only 5% of today's conditions, so they add useful signal without overpowering household data. Presidential shading shows timing, not credit or blame.
Housing where you live
New York is moving gradually toward balance, but financing costs still shape what buyers can afford.
The line tracks price growth, not just the price tag, so a high-cost and low-cost state can be read the same way.
A moderate rise usually gives buyers more choice. A sharp drop can signal a market that is locking up.
Very fast markets favor sellers. Very slow markets can reflect weak demand or prices that have not adjusted.
Estimated loan payment with 20% down and a 30-year mortgage at 6.49%. Property taxes and insurance are not included.
More cuts usually give buyers more negotiating power.
Homes-for-sale data: Realtor.com Economic Research · 50 states plus Washington, D.C.
Household financial cushion
Saving, required payments, and missed payments
Families are saving about $3 of every $100 left after taxes, leaving less room for an emergency.
The share of after-tax income needed for mortgage, car, credit card, and other debt payments remains manageable, but is rising.
The share of card balances at least 30 days late is elevated from its pandemic low, though it has recently eased.
Federal debt and interest
When more tax revenue goes toward past borrowing, there is less flexibility for future priorities or the next emergency.
Everything the federal government currently owes.
About $1.23 owed to the public for every $1 the economy produces in a year.
Current annualized pace of federal interest payments.
What may come next
Next scheduled Fed decision
These percentages are expectations, not guarantees.
Traders' estimated chance
Traders' estimated chance
Traders' estimated chance
Prediction markets show what traders expect—not what will definitely happen. The decision date comes from the Federal Reserve; Kalshi supplies the trader estimates and the time trading ends.
Saved Kalshi estimates rounded to whole percentages as of July 23, 2026. Prices can update at different times, so they may not add to exactly 100. Live updates are off to preserve API usage.Bottom line
Jobs, stocks, and slower price growth are holding the picture together. High rates, weak saving, and federal interest costs are doing the damage.