Jobs and recent inflation momentum are helping. High borrowing costs, thin household savings, and federal finances keep the overall picture mixed.
Work and cooling price momentum are helping. Borrowing costs and federal finances are holding the score back.
High data coverage · 14 of 14 inputsThe short version
Latest available readings
Interest rates
A key interest rate that influences mortgages and other long-term loans.
Long-term borrowing remains expensive.
This is Treasury’s official 10-year constant-maturity closing rate. It influences mortgages, business loans, and many other long-term borrowing costs.
Updated after each U.S. trading day.Buying a home
What a typical new 30-year home loan costs.
Still high enough to keep many owners from moving.
Freddie Mac’s national weekly average for conventional 30-year fixed mortgages. Higher rates raise monthly payments and make moving or refinancing less attractive.
Updated weekly on Thursday.Everyday prices
How quickly everyday prices are rising.
Prices are rising more slowly, but not yet comfortably.
The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers. It measures how quickly a typical basket of goods and services is becoming more expensive.
Updated monthly.Work
People seeking work who cannot find it.
The job market remains a relative bright spot.
The share of people who want a job and are actively looking but do not have one. A low number is generally good, unless it hides people leaving the workforce.
Updated monthly.Stock market
Tracks stock prices for 500 large U.S. companies.
The market is up this year, helping invested households—but not everyone owns stocks.
The S&P 500 follows 500 large U.S. companies. It is not the whole economy, but many retirement funds and investments track it, so it can affect household wealth.
Updated after each U.S. trading day.Under the hood
Model v1.0 · 0 = severe stress · 100 = strong
Jobs, the reach of hiring, and whether pay is beating prices.
30% of today's conditionsBoth the 12-month inflation rate and its recent direction.
20% of today's conditionsMortgage costs, long-term rates, and extra mortgage pressure.
20% of today's conditionsSaving, required debt payments, and missed card payments.
15% of today's conditionsDebt compared with the economy and interest compared with revenue.
10% of today's conditionsA limited contribution from broad-market performance.
5% of today's conditionsFourteen readings are translated to a 0–100 scale using fixed healthy and stressed anchors, then combined using the weights above. Recent inflation, hiring breadth, real pay, mortgage pressure, and stocks form the smaller forward-looking layer.
Strong markets cannot erase severe household stress: an unemployment or household-cushion emergency can cap the total. Prediction-market odds provide context in the outlook section but do not directly change the score.
The long view
Presidential terms shown for context
The longer view now begins in 1991: the long 1990s expansion, two financial crises, the late-2010s peak, the pandemic shock, and the inflation-and-rates reset all use one scoring model.
Every historical point is recalculated with the same model using quarterly data. The score is 85% current conditions and 15% momentum and emerging risks. Stocks are only 5% of current conditions. History begins in 1991; older readings carry lower confidence where a modern series was not yet available. Historical data may be revised; presidential shading shows timing, not credit or blame.
Housing where you live
New York is moving gradually toward balance, but financing costs still shape what buyers can afford.
The line tracks price growth, not just the price tag, so a high-cost and low-cost state can be read the same way.
A moderate rise usually gives buyers more choice. A sharp drop can signal a market that is locking up.
Very fast markets favor sellers. Very slow markets can reflect weak demand or prices that have not adjusted.
Estimated loan payment with 20% down and a 30-year mortgage at 6.58%. Property taxes and insurance are not included.
More cuts usually give buyers more negotiating power.
Homes-for-sale data: Realtor.com Economic Research · 50 states plus Washington, D.C.
Household financial cushion
Saving, required payments, and missed payments
Families are saving about $3 of every $100 left after taxes, leaving less room for an emergency.
The share of after-tax income needed for mortgage, car, credit card, and other debt payments remains manageable, but is rising.
The share of credit-card loans that banks report as delinquent is above its pandemic low, though it has recently eased.
Federal debt and interest
When more tax revenue goes toward past borrowing, there is less flexibility for future priorities or the next emergency.
Everything the federal government currently owes.
About $1.23 of total federal debt for every $1 the economy produces in a year.
Current annualized pace of federal interest payments.
What may come next
Next scheduled Fed decision
These percentages are expectations, not guarantees.
Traders' estimated chance
Traders' estimated chance
Traders' estimated chance
Prediction markets show what traders expect—not what will definitely happen. The decision date comes from the Federal Reserve; Kalshi supplies the trader estimates and the time trading ends.
Saved Kalshi estimates rounded to whole percentages as of July 23, 2026. Prices can update at different times, so they may not add to exactly 100. Live updates are off to preserve API usage.Bottom line
Jobs, stocks, and slower price growth are holding the picture together. High rates, weak saving, and federal interest costs are doing the damage.